Bitcoin ‘supercycle’ may emerge in 2021 as Fed balance sheet hits new record high


Statistician Willie Wu notes that Bitcoin (BTC) is increasingly looking like it is in a “super cycle”, not just a rally.

at Twitter sharing On February 12th, the celebrated analyst joined Dan Held, the growth leader in the US Kraken Exchange, describing the current BTC market as an unparalleled rise.

Woo: The retail arrived

Held Explained previously His theory on the state of Bitcoin in 2021 – that the price gains are not comparable to previous rallies, and do not even coincide with the end of 2017 when BTC / USD approached $ 20,000.

Instead, this year looks like a bull race of a completely different size – a “super cycle” in Bitcoin making.

In his own notes, Woo confirmed that the data indicated retail investors would return to Bitcoin in January.

“Retail arrived. Another 4 weeks. Welcome to the middle stage of a bull market. This isn’t like everyone else, he wrote.

When Held suggested that the super cycle had arrived with them, he replied that 2021 would provide confirmation.

This can be answered with more confidence in Q4. For now, it’s just a basic narrative, I need to know if capital flows confirm this.

“The setting made me lean toward it.”

Interest in searching for “Bitcoin” picked up in the early part of 2021, but there is still more ground to cover significantly in order to match the 2017 peak.

Google Trends data for Bitcoin. Source: Google Trends

Thermocap produces a BTC price target of $ 110,000

With Bitcoin poised to tackle the $ 50,000 resistance after that, long-term price indices continue to point higher even after the massive uptrend of the past few months.

As Cointelegraph mentioned, Bitcoin’s so-called “thermocouple” is one such metric that indicates that gains are just beginning and that the top is still far away.

Bitcoin market value to heat ratio graph with comparisons. Source: Rafael Schultze-Kraft / Twitter

In this week’s update, Rafael Schultze-Kraft, chief technology officer for analytics resource on the series Glassnode, estimated that if Thermocap replicated its performance for 2017, the BTC / USD price could reach $ 110,000.

“The last bull market, BTC $ was around $ 8500 when Marketcap to Thermocap was at current levels – and it rose another 135% to the top in just one month. Things can go quickly.” chirp.

“Yes, this time is different, but just in case: 135% of here is worth about $ 110,000.”

Federal balance sheet chart. Source: Holger Zschaepitz / Twitter

Macro indicators also continue to provide the ideal background for increased interest in Bitcoin across the board. Last week, the US Federal Reserve added to its balance sheet to the point where it broke all-time highs again.

“The federal balance sheet delivered a new ATH number of $ 7.44 trillion last week, equivalent to 34.7% of the United States’ GDP, ”Holger Sischitz, market commentator at German news outlet Die Welt Mention.

“The Fed’s balance sheet is smaller than the # ECB, at 70.7% of GDP, and much smaller than that of SNB or BoJ where total assets are> 100% of GDP.”